The 2024 elections in the United States were like no other. In the presidential race, Donald Trump won over Kamala Harris. What that means for America, and its relationships with allies and partners worldwide is another story.

In 2024, 33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats were up for election on November 5.  Currently, Republicans hold a majority in the U.S. House, while Democrats and independents who caucus with Democrats have a majority in the U.S. Senate.

Change is on the way. The Senate will flip to the Republicans. Senator Mitch McConnell will step down as Republican Leader after 18 years. His replacement is Senator John Thune from South Dakota. In the House, the Republicans will retain a majority and may pick up a seat or two. There, Republicans have so far captured 220 seats, with the Democrats at 214. One final race has not yet been called as of November 27. For a majority, 218 slots are necessary out of the 435 House seats. 

Today, we will focus on the results of those races affecting Baltic Caucus members and their ramifications for the 119^th Congress, the two-year session that begins in January 2025.

Three House Baltic Caucus (HBC) races were close enough only to be decided in the weeks after election day. In Ohio, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), the longest-serving woman in the history of Congress (serving since 1983) was declared the winner in her race on November 20. Another HBC member, two-term Iowa Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks was in an even closer race against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, winning by less than 800 votes. Following a recount, Miller-Meeks’ victory was confirmed on November 27.  In California, Republican Ken Calvert was declared the winner over Democratic challenger Will Rollins by 51.3% to 48.7% a week after the election. Calvert is the longest-serving House Republican in California, first entering Congress in 1993.

Republican HBC co-chair Don Bacon (R-Nebraska) won a closely contested race in which he trailed in polls for much of the campaign. He will remain co-chair, and Rep. Salud Carbajal of California is expected to be the new Democratic co-chair.

There are 93 members of the HBC, and all whom were candidates in November’s general election won their races.  It was one of the best results during the 25+ years of the caucuses since their beginning in 1997. In the 2022 election, HBC incumbent Steve Chabot (R-OH) lost to Democrat Greg Landsman in Cincinnati and its suburbs.

It is much more common for members to depart by retirement or seek other offices.  Three members, including two former Democratic HBC co-chairs, are moving on to the Senate. These include Adam Schiff (D-CA), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI).  

Gallego has been HBC co-chair since January 2021. Previously, Schiff was HBC co-chair, serving with Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) from 2013 – 2021. Rep. Slotkin joined the HBC at the beginning of 2024. Let’s hope she, Ruben Gallego, and Adam Schiff join the SBFC!

Besides Schiff, Gallego, and Slotkin, six other HBC Democrats are stepping aside. One member, Dave Trone (D-MD) lost in a primary, to Angela Alsobrooks (D), who will take over for retiring Senator Ben Cardin (D). Four Democrats are retiring: Grace Napolitano (D-CA), Derek Kilmer (D-WA), Tony Cárdenas (D-CA), and Wiley Nickel (D-NC). Dean Phillips (D-MN) sought the Democratic nomination as president but withdrew from that race in March 2024.  Along with these nine Democrats, five Republican HBC members are also retiring: Kay Granger (R-TX), Brad Wenstrup (R-OH), Doug Lamborn (R-CO), Patrick McHenry (R-NC), and Jenniffer González-Colon (Puerto Rico), who was elected as Governor of Puerto Rico. 

In addition to the 13 members of the HBC who will no longer be part of the Caucus in 2025, two longtime members recently died – Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) and Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ). Another HBC member left early in the 118^th Congress – David Cicilline (D-RI). He was replaced after a November 7, 2023, special election won by Gabe Amo, who in turn joined the HBC in July 2024.  

Even with these losses, there will still be at least 79 members of the HBC at the start of 2025. It will be a great starting point for reaching 100 members during the session.

A record 21 members joined the HBC in 2024, with another 13 in 2023, totaling 34 for the 118^th Congress. There are HBC members from a record 35 states, plus Puerto Rico and Washington, DC. Arizona (with Gallego departing for the Senate), Minnesota, and Puerto Rico will drop off the list. California will drop from its lead of 14 members to 11, with the departures of Schiff (going to the Senate), Napolitano, and Cárdenas. Texas, which is in second place, drops from eight to seven members, with Rep. Granger’s retirement. New York holds third place with five members.

The Senate Baltic Freedom Caucus (SBFC) will have at least 19 members at the beginning of 2025. There are currently 22 members after Sen. Robert Menendez resigned in August 2024. Three other Senators are leaving – Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Joe Manchin (D-WV), and Mike Braun (D-IN), who was elected to the Indiana governorship. 

In the Senate races, as mentioned, two congressmen who have been Democratic HBC co-chairs have won spots in the upper chamber. One, Adam Schiff, handily defeated former Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey by a 59% – 41% margin.  In Arizona, current HBC co-chair Ruben Gallego was officially declared the winner in his race against Kari Lake on November 12. In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin defeated Republican candidate Mike Rogers, who himself was an HBC member until he retired from the U.S. House at the end of 2014.

In the SBFC, the current 22 members represent 19 states. One state will drop off – Indiana (with Sen. Braun’s election as governor), and the other two states – Michigan and West Virginia – have two members, with another Senator remaining. Together with the current 35 states represented by the HBC, the Senate in 2025 will include four states not otherwise represented in the House. They are Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, and South Dakota. Four current SBFC members won re-election to six-year terms: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE), and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS).   

Senator Sherrod Brown lost his re-election bid in Ohio, one of the swing states. Before being elected to the Senate in 2006, Sen. Brown had served in the U.S. House since 1993 and later joined the House Baltic Caucus. Unfortunately, he never transitioned to the SBFC in the Senate.

For more information on the congressional Baltic Caucuses, please visit here.

[Note: article updated at 10:15 pm ET on November 27, 2024, following Rep. Miller-Meeks victory]

Brief by Join Baltic American National Committee (JBANC)